Southern convergence

Interdependence between North and South is gaining ground at breathtaking speed. China and India are managing a transition in only 20-30 years that lasted for a century in now-developed Europe.

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Dr. Linda Yueh, Prof. Hans-Helmut Kotz, Chris Rea & V. Viswanathan

Dr. Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics, Pembroke College, Oxford

Great leapfrog forward forecast by Linda Yueh

 “China can leapfrog by learning from best practice abroad.  The willingness to learn is extraordinarily important. China is going through the second period of industrialisation, with a tendency to layoffs and a move away from heavy industry. There is a breath-taking swathe of opening. Exports and imports make up 75% of GDP. China is one of the most open economies in the world.” 

Yueh points to bank fragility “China has now become more important economically than the UK and will overtake Germany in the next year. But it is not a market economy. It must become more productive. Look at the banking sector's fragilities. There are opportunities and challenges.”

‘China has far to go’  “China has an export profile of a country with    three times its per capita income only  $1,700. China has a lot of ground to make up. But trade is not done by countries, it is done by companies.”

Yueh sees surplus labour  “China faces great pressures from demography. In China there is a great deal of surplus labour in rural areas. There is an acute need for reforming the pensions system.”

Sharma says North and South differences ‘evaporating’

H. E. K. Sharma, Indian High Commissioner to the UK

“China and India are not just economies, they are civilisations.  North and South are evaporating before our eyes.  India is becoming strong by venturing abroad.  There is a huge reconfiguration of intellectual property.  Don't forget, when Europe started to industrialise, Germany was a peasant society.”

Kotz hopeful on China/India development

Prof. Hans Helmut Kotz, Member of the Board, Deutsche Bundesbank

 “India and China are dynamically developing economies. We can be very confident and very hopeful about what we see – Chinese expansion has been a boon for Europe. We now see Chinese companies - specialising in parts of the value chain niches - coming successfully to the Black Forest.”

Hurd says world at ‘tipping point’

Rt. Hon. Lord Hurd of Westwell, former UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs

“I believe we are at a tipping point, we are coming to the end of the time when the US as the sole superpower can direct the future of the world. The international institutions are decaying. We will need to manage the balance of power more intelligently than in 1914.”

Viswanathan points to bigger picture

V. Viswanathan, Senior Vice President, Finance & Controlling, Body Electrical and Electronics divison, Robert Bosch

“A process of continued rejuvenation is taking place – constant restructuring and re-nurturing, making the company continuously competitive. Look at the whole world, not just India and China. I see opportunities for companies with a capital base of $1m - $2m to position themselves.”